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Abstract A recent study by the Institute of Independent Economic Research in Basel, Switzerland, highlights the potential negative consequences for the EU if it imposes punitive tariffs on Chinese photovoltaic (PV) products. According to the report, such measures could lead to a significant drop in demand for solar energy products among European consumers, ultimately resulting in the loss of approximately 242,000 jobs within the EU over three years.
The survey was commissioned by the European Association of Cheap Solar Energy, an industry group representing more than 180 PV companies across Europe. The findings were presented during a hearing with the European Commission and later discussed at a press conference. Oliver Ellentraut, a senior project manager at the Institute of Forecasting, emphasized that the proposed tariffs would not only hurt consumer demand but also cause severe job losses and reduce overall economic value in the region.
According to the research, if the EU imposes a 20% tariff on Chinese PV products, it could result in the loss of 175,500 jobs and 18.4 billion euros in added value over three years. If the rate increases to 60%, the number of lost jobs could rise to 242,000, with an additional 27.2 billion euros in lost value. These figures reflect a major impact on the entire PV supply chain, including installation services, manufacturing, and related industries.
Torsten Proigschas, a spokesperson for the European Association of Cheap Solar Energy, pointed out that while some EU PV manufacturers might benefit from higher tariffs, the overall effect on employment would be far more damaging. He explained that even if production and employment in certain sectors of the PV industry increased slightly, these gains would not offset the losses across the broader industry chain.
The European Commission launched anti-dumping and countervailing duty investigations into Chinese PV imports last year, affecting exports worth 21 billion euros. This case has been referred to as the "double investigation" in EU trade history. A preliminary decision is expected around June this year, according to EU regulations.