Global steel demand may gradually recover in the second half of 2012

Recently, Hans Juergen Kerkhoff of the International Steel Association Economic Committee pointed out that although the market performance in the fourth quarter of 2011 was weak, global steel demand growth in 2011 still reached 5.6%, mainly due to the strong recovery in steel demand in the first half of 2011. Although 2011 was affected by a series of negative factors, including the occurrence of a magnitude 9 earthquake in Japan and the resulting tsunami and nuclear leakage, political turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa, and flooding in Thailand, these negative events were mainly responsible for the local steel demand. Negative impact. The sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone has indeed had a significant impact on global steel demand, which is the main reason why the latest forecast of the International Steel Association fell compared with the October 2011 forecast. At present, the euro zone sovereign debt crisis is showing signs of stability, so the International Steel Association expects that the global steel demand will gradually recover in the second half of this year, and then promote the 2013 global steel demand growth rate.

Although the negative impact of the current sovereign debt crisis in the euro area has been limited, uncertainties continue to exist, and uncertainties remain the key factor for the International Steel Association's downward adjustment of steel demand outlook. High oil prices and the political tension in major oil-producing regions are also important factors for the downsizing of the International Steel Association. In addition, the possibility of a hard landing in the Chinese economy cannot be ignored. However, the International Steel Association does not consider this possibility to be high. What needs to be pointed out is that the most important trend in the latest forecast revised by the International Steel Association is that the Chinese government’s efforts to adjust the economic structure will continue to slow the growth of Chinese steel demand. Despite this, the slowdown in China's steel demand growth is expected to be partially offset by improved demand in other emerging markets and strong recovery in U.S. steel demand.