May steel prices fluctuate steadily

According to calculations, the daily production level of crude steel in May is expected to fall slightly, and supply pressure will ease slightly. The initial judgment on steel prices in May will be stable or small fluctuations in May.

Decrease in demand for steel in January and May Based on 1: Decrease in sales volume Decrease in activity of the steel market slightly From the perspective of market activity, the April sales volume index was 55.2%, down by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that in April The sales volume of the steel trade enterprises decreased, and the market activity of the steel exchanges declined slightly. Affected by the slow progress of the global economic recovery, the demand growth of the downstream industry has slowed down, and the trading volume of the steel market has decreased. From the regional perspective, the sales volume index of the six regions except for North China and Northeast China has risen, while other regions have experienced different degrees of decline, and the six regional sales volume index is still above 50%.

According to 2: Orders slightly lower Steel demand picks up weaker from the market Terminal demand, the April total orders index 54.6%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points qoq, indicating that the downstream demand for steel is picking up. Among them, the domestic order index was 54.6%, a slight decrease of 0.2% from the previous month, indicating that the amount of orders from domestic users for steel trading enterprises in April slightly decreased, and the demand of downstream users weakened. The export orders index was 50.1%, up by 1.2 percentage points month-on-month, indicating that foreign demand continued to improve.

According to 3: Steel trade enterprises' bullish attitude weakened From the market mentality, the April trend judgment index was 52.5%, down 0.5% compared with the previous period, indicating that the steel trade enterprises' attitude towards the market outlook has weakened. Among them, 32.4% of companies are bullish, 55.4% of companies are flat, and the proportion of bullish and bullish companies is down 4.9 percentage points from the previous month; 12.1% of companies are bearish. From a regional perspective, except for the slight increase in the East China region, the six major regional trend indicators showed declines in various degrees in other regions, indicating that the steel trade enterprises’ attitudes toward the market outlook have weakened.

According to 4: Steel trade enterprises' willingness to purchase reduced demand from steel trading companies, April purchase intention index was 50.9%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points from the previous period, indicating that steel companies' willingness to purchase was reduced and procurement demand was reduced. From the regional perspective, the purchase intention index of the steel trade enterprises in the six major regions except for the northeastern region has risen slightly, while other areas have declined to varying degrees. From the perspective of the sales scale of enterprises, the purchase demand of steel trade enterprises with annual sales volume of 100,000 tons or less is relatively large.

In view of the above, from the perspective of the steel demand of Tongye Steel in April, although the downstream orders decreased slightly, the sales volume of enterprises decreased, the steel trade enterprises’ bullish attitude weakened, and the willingness to purchase decreased, but the four subindexes are still above 50%. And due to the slow progress of the global economic recovery and the slowdown in China's economic growth, the overall judgement of steel market demand in May will continue to maintain growth, but growth has slowed.

In May and May, the steel price was stable and slightly fluctuating. Based on 5: May, the daily output of crude steel is expected to drop slightly. Supply pressure will ease slightly. From the supply perspective, in April 2014, China Steel Association and China Steel Association estimated the national crude steel The average daily output is about 2,215,900 tons, which is 50,100 tons less than the average daily output of 2.266 million tons of crude steel in March. According to a rough estimate of the supply forecast model, crude steel production in April is expected to be around 69.5 million tons, and supply pressure will increase significantly. However, the daily output of crude steel in May is expected to decline, and supply pressure will be eased slightly in the later period.

According to 6: ore port inventory will inject new downward pressure on the high ore price. From the perspective of steel cost support, the iron ore port inventory of steel raw materials remains high. As of April 25, the inventory of iron ore in the port has increased compared to last week. 2.05 million tons, reaching 113 million tons, reaching a new high, iron ore prices will face downward pressure, steel cost support may weaken.

Taking the above into consideration, in May, the demand for steel downstream will slow down, the supply pressure will ease slightly, and the steel cost support will weaken. In general, steel prices will fluctuate steadily in May.

Market situation in March and May: Demand for declining demand for long products and sheet steel varies 1、Demand for downstream terminals: Plate is better than long products In April, the total orders index of steel trade enterprises in Beijing was 53.1%, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points from the previous month; The total orders index for steel trading enterprises in the region was 56.3%, up 3.6 percentage points month-on-month. The total orders index of steel trade enterprises in Tianjin increased, and the total orders index of steel trade enterprises in Beijing decreased, but all were above 50%, indicating that the demand for long-term terminal equipment in the downstream of steel trade enterprises slowed down in May, and the demand for plate terminals continued to slow. increase.

2. Purchasing Demand: Longer-than-plate materials The procurement willingness index of steel trade enterprises in Beijing in April was 52.1%, a decrease of 2.8 percentage points from the previous month; the procurement willingness index of steel trade enterprises in Tianjin was 49.6%, a decrease of 3.5 percentage points from the previous month. Demand for long products and sheet metal has declined. However, the willingness index for steel companies in the Beijing region is still above 50%, while the willingness index for purchases in Tianjin has fallen below 50%, which means that the demand for purchases of steel trade enterprises in May will slow down and the demand for sheet metal procurement will slow down. Have been reduced.