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Since the implementation of the exchange rate reform of "a basket of currencies" in China in June 2005, the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar has continued to appreciate for several years, which has put a lot of pressure on China's export earnings. It was originally used as a GDP troika. The foreign trade of the first one has fallen sharply, and the export-oriented enterprises with a large number of international markets in the coastal areas are unsustainable. Moreover, the accelerated appreciation of the renminbi has also made the renminbi a high value in the international monetary system, attracting international hot money to flow into China through various channels, causing an asset bubble in China and causing inflationary pressures in the country. This situation did not change until last year. The trend of the RMB against the US dollar remained within a relatively balanced range of limited fluctuations. The direct effect of this was that domestic prices remained stable, and foreign trade also showed signs of recovery from this year. .
However, the current trend of accelerated appreciation of the renminbi has brought uncertainty to the economic recovery that has just emerged in China, especially the difficulty of macroeconomic management. A direct cause of this round of RMB appreciation is Japan’s recent announcement of a “double easing†monetary policy, which has caused strong shocks in the world exchange rate market, and the renminbi is the first to bear the brunt. Since April, the exchange rate of the yen against the US dollar has continued to fall. On April 12, it has approached the 100-yen mark. There is no suspense in breaking through this mark in the next trading week. The accelerated depreciation of the yen also led to a sharp appreciation of the yuan against the yen before the exchange rate with the US dollar, and the appreciation on April 8 even exceeded 5%. This violent fluctuation of the renminbi against the yen will naturally be reflected in the renminbi against the dollar.
After the current financial crisis broke out, the United States continued to implement the QE version of the quantitative easing policy, and caused some countries and economies to actively follow up. Japan has been relatively restrained in this regard, but after Abe formed a cabinet at the end of last year, the Abe government introduced a series of policy-makers to stimulate the economy in just a few months. The Bank of Japan is also making decisions on the new president, Kuroda Toshihiko. Under the guise of changing the conservative image of the past and launching a package of monetary measures with “one step in placeâ€, “double easing†is one of the most fierce measures. It requires the base currency to be increased to 270 trillion by the end of 2014. Yuan (equivalent to 2.9 trillion US dollars). However, due to the great complementarity between the bilateral trade between Japan and China, although the trade between the two countries has declined due to the Diaoyu Islands incident, it still occupies a relatively high proportion of the total foreign trade. Therefore, Japan has started to print The depreciation of the yen by the currency machine is directly related to the accelerated appreciation of the renminbi in the near future.
The frequent monetary easing in the peripheral market has put tremendous pressure on the Chinese economy that has just embarked on the recovery track. As far as China is concerned, the voice of loosening monetary policy is also high, but the Chinese central bank has not changed its tight monetary policy because of the need to control inflation. Despite this, China's bank credit is still growing at an alarming rate. A series of economic data released by relevant departments recently showed that under the current tight monetary policy, China's liquidity expansion momentum is still not decreasing. As of the end of March, China’s M2 (broad money) balance reached 103.61 trillion yuan, breaking through the 100 billion yuan mark for the first time. In March, new RMB loans reached 1.06 trillion yuan, and the scale of social financing was as high as 2.54 trillion yuan. .
In response to the currency devaluation in the international market due to the implementation of accommodative policies, the most effective way is of course to change China's monetary policy to easing, and to print the renminbi to hedge against the depreciation of peripheral currencies. However, due to its own constraints, it is impossible for China to adopt this strategy of “drug attackâ€. Once the monetary policy is relaxed on a large scale, a new round of price hikes will soon emerge. In particular, the results of real estate regulation will be destroyed, and housing prices will surely A "blowout" market appeared. In the future, China’s macroeconomic management, a primary task is to “slim down†the size of the currency issue, but if this is done, in the case of the devaluation of the external market currency due to the implementation of easing policies, an inevitable result is to promote the emergence of the renminbi. A faster appreciation, which increases the difficulty of domestic economic regulation.
A direct result of the continuous appreciation of the renminbi is that export-oriented enterprises are subject to increasingly heavy exchange depreciation pressures, which reduces the actual value of foreign exchange earnings. The continuous appreciation of the renminbi in the past few years has given us an intuitive lesson. The frequent monetary easing in the peripheral market has made our economic prospects very uncertain. Therefore, one direction we can work hard is to minimize the passiveness in this “currency war†without smoke, and not to let the external market hold Our nose is going. In the long run, China should accelerate the internationalization of the renminbi, allow the renminbi to establish a broader voice in the international market, and reduce the negative impact of the current major international currency depreciation such as the US dollar on the renminbi, and in the near term, We should still pay close attention to the economic restructuring, tap the potential of the domestic demand market to ensure economic growth, and change our long-standing excessive dependence on foreign trade in order to avoid exchange rate risks in international market transactions.
(Author: Zhou Junsheng scholar)
Abstract Recently, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has been rising all the time. In the past week, it has even set two consecutive records. The latest data from the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center shows that on the last trading day of this week, April 12, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar...
In the recent period, the exchange rate of China’s RMB against the US dollar has been rising, and in the past week, it has repeatedly set a new record. According to the latest data from the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center, on the last trading day of this week, on April 12, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar recorded 6.2506, a 91 basis point increase over the previous trading day, which is approaching the importance of 6.25. The psychological barrier.