In the past two years, the development speed of China's natural gas market has slowed down markedly, the supply and demand situation has become more relaxed, and the risk of oversupply has intensified. According to the National Development and Reform Commission data, the national natural gas consumption increased by 5.6% last year, the lowest in 10 years. In the first half of this year, the national natural gas consumption increased by only 2.1%, further sharply declining, continuing the “production-to-sale” model for many years. For "production by sales." How to cultivate and strengthen the natural gas market is related to the sustainable and healthy development of China's natural gas industry.

As a high-quality and efficient clean energy, natural gas is the most realistic choice for optimizing China's energy structure, preventing air pollution and strengthening ecological environment protection. It has long been highly valued and supported by the government and related enterprises. From 2004 to 2013, China's natural gas market expanded rapidly. In addition to policy factors, it mainly benefited from two major factors: First, natural gas has a significant price competitive advantage. When the prices of alternative energy such as coal and oil rise, the government adopts administrative means. The price of gas has been lowered; secondly, the macro economy has maintained rapid growth, stimulating demand for energy consumption.

At present, the natural gas market is sluggish, which is also affected by the two major causes of the macroeconomic situation and natural gas prices. On the one hand, the downward pressure on China's economic development has increased, resulting in a sluggish demand for the entire energy industry, including coal and electricity. The natural gas market cannot be immune to it; on the other hand, since the second half of last year, with the international oil price falling, and domestic The price of coal has fallen sharply, and the economic advantage of natural gas has been weakened. Compared with alternative energy sources such as coal and oil, natural gas has lost economics in the fields of vehicle, industrial and power generation, resulting in “gas conversion to coal” and “qi” in some areas. "Change oil" and other reverse substitution phenomena.

As the baton of the market economy, prices play a vital role in the development of the natural gas market. However, under the current economic situation, energy demand is generally weak. Taking electricity demand as an example, in the first half of this year, the national total electricity consumption increased by 1.3% year-on-year, the lowest in the same period since 2010. From this, it can be judged that it is difficult to quickly stimulate natural gas consumption demand and expand the natural gas consumption market by simply relying on lowering the gas price.

Therefore, regarding the rumors that the National Development and Reform Commission may lower the gas price in the third quarter, if it becomes a reality, its primary purpose is to explore ways to improve the market's net return pricing, and establish a dynamic adjustment mechanism linking natural gas to alternative energy prices. The impact will not be particularly noticeable in the short term. At the beginning of this year, China's non-residents use natural gas to achieve the integration of stock gas and incremental gas prices. The goal is to maintain a reasonable price relationship with alternative energy sources, but it does not explicitly adjust the price adjustment cycle, etc., like the refined oil pricing mechanism. mechanism. Since then, the average price of alternative energy sources such as imported fuel oil and imported liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) has declined significantly. In the third quarter, if the gas price is lowered, the main intention is to explore a gas price dynamic adjustment mechanism that reflects both the reasonable price of alternative energy and the natural gas extraction and import cost of China.

In fact, due to China's specific national conditions, including the difficulty of mining domestic resources and the cost of imported natural gas, China's gas prices will be at a relatively high level in the coming period. Even for the part of the volume that has achieved market-based pricing, at present, prices are unlikely to drop significantly. Therefore, as in the United States, it is unrealistic to rely on low gas prices to promote the rapid development of the natural gas market.

Based on this national situation, the development and growth of China's natural gas market in the future depends on the improvement of the macroeconomic situation and the improvement of the income level of consumers. From the perspective of the industry itself, it is necessary to attach great importance to technological innovation and progress. To continuously reduce the cost of natural gas production and supply, we must also accelerate the optimization of natural gas utilization structure and improve the efficiency of natural gas utilization, so as to offset the impact of high gas prices as much as possible. In this regard, Japan’s experience is worth learning.

Japan's energy use can be summarized as a "high in and out" mode, that is, high energy prices, products can also sell high prices. Due to lack of domestic resources, Japan's major sources of energy such as oil and natural gas are highly dependent on foreign countries, and import prices remain high. However, for a period of time, Japanese autos, home appliances and other industries are highly competitive around the world, which better diverted energy price pressures. At present, China's economy is in an important transition period. Natural gas utilization should seize this period and adjust to a more competitive and value-added industry.

In addition, efforts should be made to improve the efficiency of natural gas utilization. In recent years, many cities in China have managed to smog and accelerate the process of “coal to gas”. However, the use of natural gas is emergency, and energy efficiency has not been greatly improved, so it is particularly sensitive to gas prices. In the future, we must attach great importance to energy-efficiency technologies, such as the use of natural gas distributed technology to further improve the level of energy cascade utilization, as well as the degree of matching and intelligence, so as to truly “eat and dry” energy, thereby enhancing the user’s gas utilization capacity. Price tolerance.

It is worth noting that the rapid development of new energy technologies, in turn, puts pressure on the development of natural gas. Therefore, we must not only see that technological progress is conducive to expanding the space for gas use, but also that the development of new energy technologies will also create new pressure on gas prices. This aspect needs attention in the future.

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