Steel's social stocks approaching 13 million tons hit a new low for the year

As of September 21, 2012, the social inventory of the five major steel products (rebar, wire rod, hot rolled coil, cold rolled coil, and plate) in 26 major markets across the country was 13.065 million tons, down 66.4 from the previous week. Tens of thousands of tons of steel stocks fell for the ninth week in a row, and the inventory reduction amounted to the highest level in the year. At the same time, the total inventory is also a new low level during the year. Compared with the same period of last year (September 23, 2011), total inventory decreased by 1.377 million tons, and construction steel also decreased by 444,000 tons year-on-year, a substantial increase over the same period last year.

In terms of sub-categories, inventory of large varieties continued to decline across the board on Friday. Among them, the rebar has decreased by 287,000 tons from the previous week, and has declined for eleven consecutive weeks, and the decline has increased. The total inventory of rebar in the country fell to 5.29 million tons, the second lowest level in the year and 470,000 tons lower than the same period of last year. In terms of regions, inventory declining areas continued to increase, reaching 22, and inventory in only three regions rebounded. The decline in inventory across the country has also been magnified. In Harbin, Shenyang, Beijing, Guangzhou, and Hangzhou, the decline in inventories was all over 30,000 tons. In addition, Fuzhou, Nanning, etc., fell more than 10,000 tons. The market for rising stocks does not exceed 10,000 tons. The social inventory of wire rods decreased by 109,000 tons from the previous week, and the decline continued to expand. Compared with the previous week, the number of markets with a rebound in inventory was only two, 23 inventories decreased, and Guangzhou, Harbin, and Shenyang decreased by more than 10,000 tons, while other regions showed a smaller decline.

In sheet stocks, the decrease in the inventory of hot-rolled coil coils also increased, which was a decrease of 219,000 tons from the previous week and a decrease of nearly 900,000 tons from the same period of last year. Inventory across the country generally declined, with only two market stocks recovering, and the magnitude was smaller. Inventories declined in 20 regions, with the Shanghai market dropping by 44,000 tons, which was the most significant market decline. Shenyang, Tianjin and Taicang Port had dropped by more than 20,000 tons, while other regions had dropped by more than 10,000 tons. Cold-rolled and plate stocks continued to decline, and the decline was relatively small. Cold-rolled coils decreased by 0.7 million tons from the previous week, and the inventory recovery market was relatively large, but there was little change everywhere; plate stocks decreased by 42,000 tons, only The market in Shanghai has been reduced by more than 10,000 tons, with little change in other regions.

Last week, the domestic steel market continued to show a significant upward trend. Although prices were weaker over the weekend, the performance was firm for most of the week. Not only did the price rise, transactions also performed generally, and there were staged purchases in the downstream. However, because dealers are still more cautious about the market outlook, their willingness to order is still weak. A better deal and a low willingness to order will make the market inventory continue to drop substantially.

At present, the inventory of most steel products is lower than that of the same period of last year, and there are many resource shortages. From this perspective, the current destocking of the steel market has been relatively thorough, but because the price has not been able to consistently rebound, businesses have been reluctant to increase their orders. This week is the last week of September, due to the overall tight market funds, coupled with weaker prices again, it is expected that the willingness and ability of merchants to order is still limited, the short-term steel market is still expected to maintain a low social inventory.