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As of the time of publication, 14 provinces (including autonomous regions and municipalities) such as Beijing and Tianjin have released their economic data for the first quarter. Except for Henan and Qinghai, the growth rate in other provinces has declined. In terms of regional performance, the central region is showing the strongest growth. While some eastern provinces have experienced a slowdown, the overall situation remains stable. The western region, however, faces more significant challenges.
Economists expect China’s second-quarter economic growth to remain within a reasonable range, likely around 7.4%, similar to the first quarter. According to provincial statistical reports, Beijing's GDP grew by 7.1% year-on-year, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous year. Tianjin saw a growth of 10.6%, a drop of 1.9 percentage points. Zhejiang recorded 7%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points, while Guangdong grew at 7.2%, also down 1.3 points. Hainan reported 7.3%, a decline of 3.2 percentage points. Henan was an exception, with growth rising slightly to 8.7%. Hubei grew at 9.2%, down 0.5 percentage points. Inner Mongolia and Ningxia both saw slower growth, while Xinjiang and Qinghai maintained strong growth, though still below their previous levels.
In the east, the slowdown in Zhejiang and Guangdong is particularly noticeable. Both fell by 1.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year. Guangdong's Bureau of Statistics cited three main reasons: worsening export conditions, a decline in real estate growth, and weaker domestic demand. In the first quarter, Guangdong's total imports and exports dropped by 23.1% year-on-year. Zhejiang, home to many private enterprises, also showed signs of struggle, with Hangzhou growing at 7.5% and Ningbo only 6%.
Ningbo's real estate sector faced a sharp decline, with development investment falling by 16.2 percentage points and commercial housing sales dropping 39.1%. The weakening real estate market had a major impact on the local economy. Mutual insurance risks also emerged as a concern, especially in Xiaoshan, where industries like steel structures and textile chemicals are struggling.
Despite the slowdown, most eastern provinces are showing signs of stabilization. Shandong, for example, saw a slight dip in growth, but key sectors like raw materials, light industry, and power generation are recovering. Although Liaoning hasn't released its full data, officials say the province started the year well. Jiangsu and Fujian haven’t announced official figures yet, but cities like Wuxi, Fuzhou, Ganzhou, and Quanzhou reported solid growth rates between 9% and 10.9%.
The quality of economic growth in the east is improving. Beijing’s 7.1% growth came with better employment stability, a 28.3% increase in profits for large-scale industrial enterprises, and faster private investment than overall fixed asset investment. This indicates improved efficiency and quality.
In contrast, the western provinces face more difficult conditions. Yunnan, Sichuan, Chongqing, and others all saw their growth rates fall. For instance, Yunnan’s fixed asset investment dropped by 11.6 percentage points, and investment in the three sectors fell sharply. Chongqing’s investment growth slowed by 2.8 percentage points. High interest rates are also putting pressure on manufacturing.
The central region, however, is performing better. Henan, which was previously the slowest-growing among the six central provinces, saw a small increase in growth to 8.7%. Fixed asset investment rose by 21.5%, driving strong industrial growth. Hubei, despite a slight slowdown, still managed 9.2%, and Xinjiang maintained a high growth rate of 10.2%.
Experts believe that the eastern region is stabilizing at a lower growth rate, which helps maintain overall economic stability. Meanwhile, the central and western regions may see gradual improvement after some time. According to Zhu Baoliang from the National Information Center, the second-quarter growth is expected to stay close to 7.4%, remaining within a reasonable range.