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The recent domestic shipment of diammonium phosphate has largely been completed. With the northeast spring plowing season underway and fertilizer demand picking up in May, the focus is now shifting to the export season. Export companies are currently gathering goods in Hong Kong, but specific export prices are still under discussion, with no final pricing yet determined. Despite being a major exporter, China's export outlook for this year remains uncertain. Over the past few weeks, we have closely monitored downstream demand and price trends. This week, our attention has turned to raw materials, as understanding their price fluctuations is crucial for assessing market dynamics.
**Rise in the surrounding area**
The recent **market** has generally remained stable, though regional performance varies. The South China market, covering Central, South China, and Southwest regions, shows overall stability with a relatively relaxed atmosphere. This is largely due to the concentration of large-scale smelting acid and sulfonic acid producers in these areas. In contrast, the northern market has performed poorly. Smelting acid output in western Inner Mongolia has been low, while markets in Henan and Hebei have seen a steady decline. The Jiangsu market has experienced a slight rebound due to a minor increase in raw material prices, while the Shandong market remains mixed. Several repair companies in the Jiaodong area have started operations, leading to a gradual drop in market prices.
The price of **has recently increased**. Qingdao Port prices have risen from RMB 900/ton to between RMB 1050-1070/ton, with the lower end now hovering around RMB 1030-1050/ton. Although prices are trending upward, traders are not rushing to ship, preferring to wait for stabilization. Downstream manufacturers remain inactive, as prices had been relatively calm before. The recent uptick may not last long, especially with some companies undergoing maintenance. As a result, inventory demand is low, and the market is showing tentative signs of growth.
However, there are positive developments. After the price rise at Qingdao Port, many traders in the Yangtze River port area began aggressively purchasing bulk cargoes from various ports. Currently, the price of goods has reached 1,100 yuan/ton, with no reports of price changes in shipments. Inventory is concentrated, and the market is gradually stabilizing. Li Yan, Manager of the Fertilizer Marketing Department at Sinochem Shandong Fertilizer Industry Co., Ltd., noted that although prices have rebounded by 50–100 yuan/ton, the increase hasn’t significantly boosted the market. Many factories are still in maintenance mode. Domestic ammonium phosphate demand has largely ended, making it less relevant for domestic-focused companies. For export-oriented firms, negotiations on export prices are ongoing, with the lowest price yet to be announced. Production companies should closely monitor future export developments, as current conditions are filled with uncertainties, and many players are adopting a cautious approach.
**Beware of price speculation**
China currently cannot meet its own needs and relies heavily on imports. Importers typically negotiate based on monthly or quarterly delivery terms with domestic traders. For example, Sinochem Group imports approximately 2 million tons annually, maintaining stable partnerships with foreign suppliers to ensure consistent and reliable supply.
However, in port areas such as Qingdao, Fangchenggang, and Yantai, numerous trading companies operate with low entry barriers and small trade volumes. These companies mainly play a distribution role in the market. However, as a by-product, **price speculation** is more prevalent among them. During periods of market instability, smaller companies may "add fuel" to products experiencing significant price swings, encouraging further increases when prices rise and exacerbating declines when they fall. This behavior can distort market signals and mislead buyers. Therefore, it is recommended that import companies work with larger, more established trading partners to avoid being misled by speculative activities from smaller players.
The recent price increase appears to offer short-term benefits to the market, but domestic producers remain cautious and have not rushed to purchase. With export prices still under negotiation, the exact volume of exports remains uncertain, so the purchase of raw materials has been temporarily paused. It’s possible that the price hike is only temporary, and for now, it’s safer for companies to take a wait-and-see approach.