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As of the time of publication, 14 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities—including Beijing and Tianjin—have released their first-quarter economic data. Out of these, only Henan and Qinghai saw an increase in their growth rates, while the rest experienced a decline. Regionally, the central region showed the strongest performance, with stable growth despite some challenges in eastern provinces. Meanwhile, the western region faced more severe economic headwinds.
Economists believe that China’s second-quarter growth will remain within a reasonable range, likely close to the 7.4% recorded in the first quarter. According to provincial statistical reports, Beijing’s GDP grew by 7.1% year-on-year, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous year. Tianjin saw a 10.6% growth, a drop of 1.9 percentage points. Zhejiang and Guangdong both reported 7% growth, down 1.3 points each. Hainan's growth was at 7.3%, a significant decrease of 3.2 points. In contrast, Henan maintained a strong 8.7% growth, slightly faster than the same period last year.
In the east, Zhejiang and Guangdong have seen a noticeable slowdown. Guangdong’s Bureau of Statistics cited three main factors: a worsening export situation, a decline in real estate growth, and weaker domestic demand. The province’s total imports and exports fell by 23.1% year-on-year, a sharp drop of 60.8 percentage points compared to the previous year.
Zhejiang, home to many private enterprises, is also struggling. While Hangzhou saw a 7.5% growth, Ningbo lagged behind with just 6%. According to the Ningbo Municipal Bureau of Statistics, real estate development investment dropped by 16.2 percentage points, and commercial housing sales fell by 39.1%. This has had a significant impact on the local economy.
Despite these challenges, most of the eastern region remains relatively stable. Shandong, for example, saw a slight slowdown, but key industries like raw materials, light manufacturing, and power generation are showing signs of recovery. Although Liaoning hasn’t officially released its data, Governor Chen Zhenggao said the province started the quarter well. Jiangsu and Fujian haven’t published their full figures yet, but cities like Wuxi (9%), Fuzhou (10%), Ganzhou (10.9%), and Quanzhou (9.9%) show moderate growth.
The quality of economic growth in the east has improved significantly. Beijing’s 7.1% growth rate declined by 0.8 percentage points, but the city’s unemployment rate remained low, and industrial profits surged by 28.3%. Private investment outpaced overall fixed asset investment, indicating better efficiency and sustainability.
In the west, the situation is less optimistic. Yunnan, Inner Mongolia, Sichuan, and Chongqing all saw declines in growth. For example, Yunnan’s fixed asset investment dropped by 11.6 percentage points, and investment in the three major sectors fell sharply. Chongqing’s investment growth slowed by 2.8 percentage points. Local experts note that high interest rates are putting pressure on manufacturing.
In contrast, the central region has performed better, with less exposure to external shocks and stronger investment momentum. Henan, for instance, grew at 8.7%, the only province not to see a decline. Its fixed asset investment rose by 21.5%, and industrial output increased by 16.2%.
Hubei maintained a 9.2% growth rate, just 0.5 percentage points lower than the previous year. With several national projects underway, the province continues to attract investment. Xinjiang also relied on investment to maintain a 10.2% growth rate, rising to fourth place nationally.
Experts believe that the slower growth in the east is part of a natural adjustment as economies mature. While some inefficient enterprises are being phased out, overall operations are stabilizing, and efficiency is improving. This transition may help stabilize the national economy.
Looking ahead, Zhu Baoliang of the National Information Center predicts that the second-quarter growth rate will remain around 7.4%, staying within a reasonable range. Overall, China’s economy is showing resilience, with regional differences becoming more pronounced but manageable.