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Along with the rapid rise of the photovoltaic market, several major PV manufacturers in the world have significantly expanded their production. The saying that the solar PV market is “oversupply†has once again hit.
EnergyTrend analysts said that as new capacity is in place, it is conceivable that the shortage of supply will end in the second half of the year. Therefore, the price of solar energy products will be flat or even slightly lower in the second half of the year. Many domestic PV manufacturers said that the order situation in the second half of this year is still quite good, and the situation of short supply should continue until the first half of next year.
According to the forecast of relevant institutions, nine of the world's top ten solar cell manufacturers plan to increase production capacity. The total capacity of these nine manufacturers is expected to reach 9.5 GW by the end of the year. It is for this reason that analysts worry that the simultaneous expansion of large manufacturers may lead to a reversal of supply and demand.
However, after interviewing several domestic PV manufacturers, China Securities Journal found that most producers are still very confident about the market situation this year.
Zhu Rong, deputy general manager of Tianwei Baobian, said that from the perspective of the European PV market, orders were relatively satisfactory, and orders from Germany, Italy and the Czech Republic all increased. With the introduction of government subsidies from the United States and Canada. Implementation, the overseas market will show a growth trend.
Yingli Energy Beijing Co., Ltd. said that the company's current orders are relatively good. At present, as several countries such as the United States are increasing their subsidies for renewable energy, the demand gap is very high with the rise of emerging markets. It is difficult to be satisfied in the short term, and the trend of demand for PV products is expected to continue until next year.
According to relevant persons of Jiangxi Saiwei, since the PV market is internationalized, the market mechanism plays a more obvious role. Therefore, the supply and demand relationship of the industry is often in the cycle of “supply in short supply – one has expanded production – supply exceeds demandâ€, so the future As the supply of the industry increases, a certain degree of excess is also a normal phenomenon of market operation, but the companies in which they are located will adjust their behavior according to the market in a timely manner.
Oversupply appears as early as next year
The current average price of solar modules produced in Europe is 1.92 euros ($2.51), a 27% drop from last year. Analysts expect the price decline to continue until next year, when the average selling price may fall further by up to 40%.
In this regard, many domestic PV manufacturers have indicated that it is difficult to predict the price of next year, but from the order of the year, the price of PV products has not yet fallen sharply. Some companies also said that the current price from polysilicon to silicon wafers is on the rise. At the same time, even if solar modules do not rise, it is difficult to see a significant decline. After all, market demand is very strong.
According to industry insiders, as more and more countries are beginning to encourage the development of renewable energy such as photovoltaics, the PV market is generally expanding. As long as the expansion plans of large manufacturers are within the overall market growth, sales are not a problem. In addition, manufacturers can reduce costs by expanding production capacity. Although the profit per unit of wattage is declining, it can be compensated by winning by volume.
Wang Sicheng, a researcher at the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission and a photovoltaic expert, said that overall, in the past few years, the global PV market demand should continue to rise, but the growth rate of demand has slowed down, at least in the second half of this year, Orders from less PV manufacturers have already been signed, so the future oversupply situation may appear as early as next year.
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