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After experiencing doubled growth last year, demand for the global photovoltaic industry will slow down this year, and overcapacity is on the rise. However, large companies seem not to worry about orders this year, but gross margins may be under pressure. According to industry insiders, although the subsidies in Germany and Italy have been lowered, last year's "preemption (machine) tide" will also reappear this year; while rising stars such as the United States and China also have a lot of growth, the demand for the whole year will remain relatively High growth rate, each major factory will also win a large number of orders. However, the price cut and the increase in silicon materials have made the photovoltaic company's gross profit margin test this year. “The whole industry will enter a new track in the next five years,†said Gao Jifan, chairman of Trina Solar. In the first five years, global PV demand surged from 1.8GW to 15GW, an average annual increase of 50-60%; To slow down, the average growth rate in the next few years is 20-25%. The world's leading IT consulting agency, iSupply, expects global PV demand to be 15.7GW last year, double the previous year; however, global demand is around 22GW this year, and the growth rate has dropped to 30% to 40%. China is already a global producer of photovoltaic cells and modules, accounting for half of the global PV market, with more than 10 major companies listed in the US. China's Wuxi Suntech, Jingao, Yingli and Changzhou Tianhe and US First Solar shipped more than last year. 1GW. “Present†and emerging market support demand Many industry insiders pointed out that there will still be greater demand in markets such as Germany and Italy next year. Italy will cut subsidies every four months in 2011, with a reduction of between 5% and 27%; Germany will cut subsidies for different types of projects in July and September, respectively, by as much as 15%. According to last year’s Italian A wave of "grabbing" that appeared before the subsidy was lowered, and there will be a wave of similar "rushing" in this year. iSupply estimates that the installed capacity in Germany this year is 7.3-9.4GW, while the Italian market has increased from 3GW to 4GW. “Before the subsidy declines, the logic of local investors is to wait for the price to fall to the acceptable level of the project's internal rate of return, that is, to quickly rush to install the grid before the subsidy is lowered,†said CIC analyst Chen Hua in the report. Shi Zhengrong, the chairman of Suntech, the world's largest manufacturer of crystalline silicon cells, is not worried about overcapacity in the industry. “Overcapacity will cause prices to fall, and underdeveloped regions will increase new demand.†New demand will come mainly from China, the Middle East, etc. Emerging Markets. As for JA Solar, although the company is expanding rapidly, 90% of its capacity has been booked. The company also expects shipments of 2.2GW this year, an increase of 50% over the previous year. Maori may be under pressure Global PV products are growing, but capacity is growing faster. Last year, global demand for PV modules increased, and gross margins of major manufacturers were mostly good, rushing to expand production. However, once supply and demand are unbalanced, PV battery prices will fall more than expected. Wang Yiyue, chief strategy officer of Yingli Green Energy, said, “The price of components in this year is relatively high. Besides, the company’s global sales are relatively open, and some are in the low-margin market. It is estimated that the gross profit rate will be slightly lower this year.†But he It is also emphasized that photovoltaic products are not simple commodities, and they are sensitive to price, but not very large. When end users choose products, they will consider product quality, manufacturer credit and business continuity. “Price is not the only means of competition.†Some insiders pointed out that although the large-scale expansion of production capacity will inevitably lead to a decline in component sales prices, it seems that within the year. The gross profit margin should not drop significantly. On the one hand, it takes time to increase production capacity, and on the other hand, component manufacturers have the ability to effectively control costs. Cai Wenbin, an analyst at Datong Securities, mentioned that PV module manufacturers still have control over gross profit margins. They generally set production by sales and are more flexible in pricing. They will set component sales prices based on upstream polysilicon costs, even if gross profit margins decline. The magnitude will not be too large. However, he also mentioned that it is important to note that long-term contracts between component manufacturers and silicon suppliers usually retain the terms of price adjustment. If the demand is strong, the spot price of polysilicon will remain high, and the contract price may be adjusted to the spot price. Wall Street investors are quite sensitive to changes in the gross profit margin of PV producers. On Tuesday, JA Solar announced its fourth-quarter report that its gross profit margin fell by 3 percentage points, and its share price plummeted 10% that day. Eight Immortals crossing the sea, dealing with the worry of excesses. As the growth rate of the photovoltaic industry slows down, various companies have different strategies. Some have increased research and development efforts. Some manufacturers have developed new markets with lower gross profit margins, while others have extended the industrial chain. Expand your business upstream or downstream. Changzhou Trina Solar has increased its revenue from 10 billion yuan to 10 billion US dollars within five years of development. It also plans to invest 10 billion yuan in five years to support research and development to enhance its competitiveness. Yingli Green Energy has set its sights on markets outside Europe. Last year, the European market accounted for three-quarters of the world's share. The company has begun to actively deploy in emerging markets such as the US and India, Southeast Asia and Africa. This year, Yingli will be near Established a factory in the United States. "Emerging markets will have some price pressure, but in the long-term market," Ying Li’s Wang also pointed out. At present, under the subsidy mechanism in Italy, the return on investment of photovoltaic power plants is as high as 15%, attracting major manufacturers to gather in the Italian market. Some PV manufacturers have extended their reach to downstream power station construction and investment. Suntech and LDK have already launched overseas power plant plans, and China Aerospace Electromechanical recently announced that it will accelerate the expansion of overseas PV market this year and develop overseas PV in the next three years. The power station is 225 megawatts (MW). Jiang Wenzheng, chairman of Aerospace Electromechanical, said that participating in power station construction can drive the company's battery and component sales, secondly, to obtain the profit of power station construction, and third, to accumulate experience and lay the foundation for future investment in photovoltaic power plants.