In the autumn, the weather is getting cooler, while the Chinese economy has recently shown a trend of stabilization and recovery. In the current complex internal and external environment, what kind of economic trends in China and what kind of difficulties are there? What kind of opportunities are there? In conjunction with the latest data and first-line situations, entrepreneurs and experts discussed.

Stabilizing and warming changes show obvious steady growth policies

The level of electricity consumption is a true reflection of the economic trend. According to the latest data released on the 14th, the electricity consumption of the entire society in China in August increased by 13.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 4.9 percentage points from the previous month to a new high.

Economic warmth and warmth feel the most real business. Jia Jianzhong, chairman of Jiahua Energy Chemical Co., Ltd., which supplies steam to Jiaxing Port in Zhejiang Province, recently discovered that the company’s steam production has changed significantly. The chemical company concentrated its export orientation in the industrial park. In the first half of this year, the amount of steam used was about 500 tons per hour, but it rose from about the end of August to about 600 tons per hour, and it is currently maintained at around 600 tons. “We obviously felt that the park was alive, and it became sufficient to start work from underemployment and steam usage may continue to climb.”

“In August, the major data were highly consistent, depicting a clear trend of economic stabilization and recovery, and overall business operations have improved. In particular, market confidence has increased significantly.” Wang Jun, Vice Minister of Consulting and Research, China International Economic Exchange Center .

Since the beginning of this year, after two consecutive quarters of declining growth rates and pessimistic expectations, the signs of China's economic stabilization and recovery have started to appear from July. By August, there have been few recent all-in-one indicators recovery.

“The momentum of economic growth continues to rise. The driving force is mainly the improvement of domestic demand and external demand, while the improvement in domestic demand is mainly due to a series of steady growth policies in the previous period.” Peng Wensheng, chief economist of CICC, analyzed.

Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Macroeconomic Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, believes that China's macro-control has achieved an important transformation this year. This time, we did not engage in large-scale stimulation again. Instead, we focused our efforts on the weak links. We also paid attention to close integration with structural adjustment, reform, and people's livelihood. This time, we paid more attention to the long-term and focused on creating new growth points. . This multi-objective macro-control of the combination of length and short-term supply-side demand-side management has achieved initial success.

The foundation for economic recovery is still not solid and should not be blindly optimistic

Regarding the current economic trend in China, Premier Li Keqiang of the State Council made a clear judgment in his speech at the 7th Summer Davos Forum: This stable and progressing situation allows us to firmly believe that the expected goals of economic and social development this year will surely be realized. At the same time, we must also see that the foundation for the current economic recovery is still not solid, and there are still many uncertainties.

Some experts and entrepreneurs have reported that the current economic recovery is relatively concentrated in large-scale enterprises and leading enterprises in transformation and upgrading. The days of SMEs and general processing trade enterprises are still not very good.

Some companies that have mastered core technologies are thriving. High-end hydraulic parts are an important part of the mechanical equipment manufacturing industry. The core technology was once monopolized by Japanese and European companies. Shandong Changlin Group Zhongchuan Hydraulic Co., Ltd. has worked hard in recent years and made breakthroughs in the application of key localization technologies. Wang Jinghua, director of product application of the company, introduced that in the context of the overall decline in demand for construction machinery this year, the company’s product sales have increased month by month.

However, in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Sichuan, where there are three logistics information monitoring platforms, the person in charge of Zhejiang Chuanhua Highway Logistics Development Co., Ltd. thinks that the economic recovery trend is not obvious in SMEs. In July, August and May of this year, the monitored traffic volume, shipment volume and turnover still fell in varying degrees.

“Many of the small and medium-sized enterprises we monitor are still in a period of transformational difficulties. Transformation is a long-term winter process.” The person in charge said the truth.

According to Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician of the Service Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, the PMI of large-scale enterprises in China rose by 1.0 percentage point in August from the previous month. The effect of stabilizing the economy was even more pronounced; the PMI of small-sized companies decreased by 0.2 percentage points, and was at the critical point for 17 consecutive months. In the following, the operation of small and micro enterprises is still difficult.

“The foundation for the recovery of growth is still not consolidated, and the endogenous motivation is still weak. The fundamental approach is to truly open access and implement fair treatment, so as to fully stimulate the vitality of private investment.” Director of Macro Research Office, National Economic Information Forecasting Department, Niu Li He said that it is not ruled out that the industrial growth rate in September will fall. We must increase reforms while continuing to maintain stable growth.

Actively dig new growth points and strive to achieve long-term healthy development

For many economists, as long as the economic growth rate is higher than the “lower limit”, there is no need to worry too much about the short-term ups and downs of the growth rate. What is important is to actively explore new growth points and strive to realize the long-term healthy development of the Chinese economy. Some companies have now begun to do so.

The number of visitors to Caijiabang Village in Miyun County, Beijing, and Xinji Weiye Food Group Co., Ltd. built here is more than 50,000 visitors this year, double the year-on-year.

"The public is paying more and more attention to food safety, nutrition and health, and it brings opportunities to companies that aim at the domestic consumer market," said Huang Guoshu, vice president of the company. This company integrates planting, processing, and sales, and its organic foods such as soy products and noodle products have increased by 30% year-on-year. “The Chinese economy is shifting towards domestic demand. Expanding consumption is the focus of policy and has broad prospects. We intend to expand our production base and build our own logistics sales channels.”

Li Xiaoying, a Hangzhou citizen who had long left the balance in the online shopping payment system “lying to sleep”, now has different options. With a few mouse clicks, the remaining 78 yuan in Alipay was directly purchased as a money fund, and idle money can also make money. Internet finance services represented by Yuen Bao are rapidly rising. In the second quarter of this year, the number and amount of mobile payments nationwide increased by 274.7% and 363.9% respectively year-on-year.

"Technology is good and service is also worth mentioning. These new phenomena all reflect the effective channels for boosting the economy for some time in the future," said Jia Kang, director of the Finance Department of the Ministry of Finance.

Zhang Liqun believes that China's economy has great potential, and industrialization and urbanization are far from complete. There is a wide gap between regions, urban and rural areas, and the future is promising. As long as we work hard to tap potentials and constantly cultivate new growth points, and at the same time release institutional dividends through reforms, the Chinese economy will be able to maintain its long-term healthy development.

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